Last month we laid out the case for inflation but before we look at ways of insuring against such an outcome we need to accept that we are staring down a possible deflationary bust before we start seeing a general rise in prices. “Money that costs nothing is worth...
Inflation: Where is it? Is it a problem?
Here is Powell’s recent Jackson Hole conference speech, in plain English: “There is too much debt in the US and globally. It’s hurting growth. This can be resolved one of two ways: Widespread defaults (including sovereign debt forgiveness) Inflate it away Today we are accelerating option two” So there...
We are only human
Behavioural economists have noted that humans do not assess gains and losses in a symmetrical manner. That is, the emotional magnitude of the pleasure of a $10,000 gain is less acute than the pain of a $10,000 loss. But due to recency bias, during raging bull markets of a...
That Was the Week that Was
Some of you will remember TW3, the show that launched David Frost in the swinging 60s. As a satirical program it was well ahead of its time and we couldn’t wait for Friday to come around for the next episode. After this week that was, I guess we are...
Should we be worried?
The markets have at long last begun to be concerned about the virus. Should we be? Ignoring for the moment the accuracy of data from China and many other parts of the world, the news from Korea and Italy in particular are an indication that the virus has not...
The View is back!
It’s been nearly 2 years since the last View from the Bridge but rumours of my demise are just that…rumours. All posts will be sent to Twitter – see sidebar details on the right of your screen to follow Or you can subscribe by email for the monthly “thought”...
Not the Nine o’clock News – 17th December 2017
As long time readers will know we do not put much credence in end of year forecasts; nor in fact forecasts in general; the Fed and the Met Office being stand out examples. As an alternative to what is going to happen in 2018 (“Markets will fluctuate”…attributed to J.P. Morgan)...
The madness of crowds – 11th December 2017
“Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital, in his recent newsletter, summarised today’s investment environment brilliantly. He says there are four noteworthy things: current uncertainties are unusual in terms of number, scale, and insolubility; prospective returns are just about the lowest they have ever been; asset prices are high across the...
On the QT – 31st July 2017
It’s been a while and lots of ships have passed under the bridge, including an unnecessary election in the UK, the sacking of 12 White House staff members for various “misdemeanours” but mainly for disagreeing with he who must be obeyed, an interest rate rise in the US and...
Fed Up – February 18th 2017
If you were going to set up an organisation to help control and regulate the economy and the banking system how would you start? Would you employ over 1,000 Ivy League trained economists, many with PhDs, but little or no practical knowledge of running businesses? Would your board of...