Bear market rallies can engender even more superlatives than those that accompanied stocks to their bull market peaks. “All is well! We have had the correction, and this is the start of the next bull market.” Is all well? Having argued that inflation was transitory and failed ignominiously in the attempt, a motley assortment, including
Inflation; is there an elephant in the room?
Is there an elephant in the room? We are hearing a lot about the fact that inflation is on the rise, but that it’s going to be transitory and nothing to worry about. The main reason for that we are told is that the base effects, the year on year comparisons are going to fade
ESG from a personal perspective
ESG. What next, the industry is in a muddle, marketing demands an ESG product fund managers have to find the right investments to fit into lots of different boxes, ie green preferences and there are a multitude of them. We need to dial the debate back to ourselves to our own ESG credentials. Before we
Houston we have a problem
To say that low interest rates justify high valuations in stocks is also to say low interest rates justify low future returns in stocks. If one wishes to protect overvalued prices, one also has to accept meagre long-term returns. ~ John Hussman (@hussmanjp), Hussman Funds There have been some remarkable suggestions to justify valuations and
Deflation / Inflation? What’s next, what’s the answer and tales of the barbarous relic.
Last month we laid out the case for inflation but before we look at ways of insuring against such an outcome we need to accept that we are staring down a possible deflationary bust before we start seeing a general rise in prices. “Money that costs nothing is worth nothing” – we live in an
Inflation: Where is it? Is it a problem?
Here is Powell’s recent Jackson Hole conference speech, in plain English: “There is too much debt in the US and globally. It’s hurting growth. This can be resolved one of two ways: Widespread defaults (including sovereign debt forgiveness) Inflate it away Today we are accelerating option two” So there we have it. The Fed want
We are only human
Behavioural economists have noted that humans do not assess gains and losses in a symmetrical manner. That is, the emotional magnitude of the pleasure of a $10,000 gain is less acute than the pain of a $10,000 loss. But due to recency bias, during raging bull markets of a long enough duration, US stock investors
That Was the Week that Was
Some of you will remember TW3, the show that launched David Frost in the swinging 60s. As a satirical program it was well ahead of its time and we couldn’t wait for Friday to come around for the next episode. After this week that was, I guess we are all looking forward to Friday night
Should we be worried?
The markets have at long last begun to be concerned about the virus. Should we be? Ignoring for the moment the accuracy of data from China and many other parts of the world, the news from Korea and Italy in particular are an indication that the virus has not been contained in China. That in
The View is back!
It’s been nearly 2 years since the last View from the Bridge but rumours of my demise are just that…rumours. All posts will be sent to Twitter – see sidebar details on the right of your screen to follow Or you can subscribe by email for the monthly “thought” piece and a summary of the