Brexit – where do you stand?

It will come as no surprise to regular readers that your scribe is firmly in the “Leave” camp. As a twenty something in 1975 I voted for the UK to join what was then the European Economic Community. At that referendum the vote was two to one in favour and the EEC was seen in Blighty as more of a trading bloc than the full blown “Union” that it has attempted to become. Few people remember that our first application to join the club in 1963 was vetoed by Charles de Gaulle, who said, prophetically, “that the British government lacks commitment to European integration.”…


The cashless society

This piece has been written by Simon Black at Sovereign Man a site well worth a visit http://bit.ly/1PFI877 It explains why the powers that be have started a campaign to do away with cash and gives an insight into the ever parlous state of the banking system. Things are never quite as they would have you believe… This is starting to become very concerning. The momentum to “ban cash”, and in particular high denomination notes like the 500 euro and $100 bills, is seriously picking up steam. On Monday the European Central Bank President emphatically disclosed that he is strongly considering phasing out the…


Negativity, relativity and dark matter

At school, I was taught Newtonian physics. Einstein didn’t get a mention despite having posited his theory on relativity some 60 years earlier and when much later I realised my education had been sorely lacking I wondered what else I hadn’t been told! That’s the trouble with “new” theories, the “old school” takes an eon to get around to changing the common narrative. And so it is with economics although lets not pretend that it is a science or at least not in the conventional sense that a mathematical model can be created to explain the meaning of everything. Until Einstein, physics was fully…


To the Girl in the Pink Dress – I’m Wild About You!

If you cant use your own blog site to wish your beautiful wife a Happy Valentine’s Day then what’s the use of having one?! For my regular readers there will be another edition of the “View” along later today so in the meantime have a look at some back issues below. To my gloriously beautiful wife – Happy Valentine’s Day – I love you tons my Bambaji xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Tweet This Post Post to Facebook


How I learned to stop worrying…

A headline last week asked if we should be worried about the banks. There have been relatively few times when worrying about the banks has not been in vogue, but now is not one of them. The cap on UK deposit protection was reduced last year to £75,000 per account, to reflect the strength of sterling as the EU wide bank deposit protection scheme is set at €100,000. Given sterling’s current weakness, it may well have to go back up again! On top of that we are now in a position where any future bank failures, across the EU, will be dealt with by…


A picture is worth a thousand words

Well OK charts not pictures, but getting a visual fix on the markets is helpful for some of us. For others technical analysis is akin to astrology or witchcraft, but I prefer to think of it as an aid to behavioural psychology and we all need help on that front. Doug Kass has an interesting way of summing up the debate. A technical analyst and a fundamental analyst are chatting about the markets in the kitchen. One of them accidentally knocks a kitchen knife off of the table, and it lands right in the fundamental analyst’s foot. The fundamental analyst yells at the technician, asking…


The Big Short

Last week saw the opening in the UK of the movie of the same name. It is a must see for market historians as well as diviners of the future. It will remind us of the abject greed, arrogance and unremitting belief in a system that was in fact falling apart; in other words denial was the theme, unobserved by the many. The few were laughed out of court until the dénouement. Is history, in its own peculiar way, repeating itself? The movie ends with the observation that there are now more open CDS contracts than there ever were leading up to the “great” financial crisis….


Technical update after an “interesting” week

The year has started with the worst week ever for the S&P 500. This update considers what might be in store for the rest of the year. We recommend clicking here to access the full version with charts that are referred to in the text. A 6% fall in 5 days for the S&P 500 is the worst start to a year in the US…ever. In the great scheme of things this is a completely meaningless statistic, but, taken along with recent market action, could there be some genuine cause for concern? Looking firstly at the UK (page 3), there is something of a…


Not another forecast

At this time of year tradition dictates that we peer into the future and pretend that we have the foggiest idea about what is coming down the track. Those with the courage to look in the rear view mirror find they may have got a few of last year’s guesses right and those that don’t…well they just keep on guessing. Here is an interesting observation from Macro Man – http://macro-man.blogspot.com – I had to laugh when Yellen said that she “wasn’t aware of a better model” for forecasting inflation….because I wasn’t aware of a worse one! The Fed’s inflation forecasting track record is, to…


Watching and waiting

There’s a title of a song in there somewhere, but we watch and wait upon the ECB and the Fed, which is of course a song and a dance routine. It is widely accepted that everyone knows that everyone else knows that the central banks are not going to let anything untoward happen to the markets. This “belief” started with the Greenspan “put”, morphed seamlessly into the Bernanke “put” and until recently to the Yellen “put”. The present Chairwoman has had her work cut out to maintain the Fed’s credibility as Masters of the Universe, but it does seem that at long last she…