How I learned to stop worrying…

A headline last week asked if we should be worried about the banks. There have been relatively few times when worrying about the banks has not been in vogue, but now is not one of them. The cap on UK deposit protection was reduced last year to £75,000 per account, to reflect the strength of sterling as the…


A picture is worth a thousand words

Well OK charts not pictures, but getting a visual fix on the markets is helpful for some of us. For others technical analysis is akin to astrology or witchcraft, but I prefer to think of it as an aid to behavioural psychology and we all need help on that front. Doug Kass has an interesting way of summing up…


The Big Short

Last week saw the opening in the UK of the movie of the same name. It is a must see for market historians as well as diviners of the future. It will remind us of the abject greed, arrogance and unremitting belief in a system that was in fact falling apart; in other words denial was the theme, unobserved…


Technical update after an “interesting” week

The year has started with the worst week ever for the S&P 500. This update considers what might be in store for the rest of the year. We recommend clicking here to access the full version with charts that are referred to in the text. A 6% fall in 5 days for the S&P 500 is the worst…


Not another forecast

At this time of year tradition dictates that we peer into the future and pretend that we have the foggiest idea about what is coming down the track. Those with the courage to look in the rear view mirror find they may have got a few of last year’s guesses right and those that don’t…well they just keep…


Watching and waiting

There’s a title of a song in there somewhere, but we watch and wait upon the ECB and the Fed, which is of course a song and a dance routine. It is widely accepted that everyone knows that everyone else knows that the central banks are not going to let anything untoward happen to the markets. This “belief”…


My name is Bond

Bond has been on my mind a lot of late but, unlike many people, it is not the Daniel Craig film but the horror movie – or perhaps the comedy of errors – that is the fixed income sector I have been watching through my fingers. This world is not full of fast cars and vodka martinis –…


History never repeats

It is not totally clear that Mark Twain ever penned these words and forgive me for using another hackneyed cliche, but it feels like deja vu all over again. The financial crisis from which we are recovering / have recovered depending on which government / talking heads mouthpiece you might care to listen to was preceded by increasing…


A bear in a China shop

The traditionally quiet month of August, when all good city folk should be sunning themselves on the Riviera, has exploded into action. Now that we have high frequency traders running the show, allegedly supplying liquidity, which must be one of the biggest jokes perpetrated on a largely unsuspecting investment community, volatility has been eye watering. From the 23rd…


Greece isn’t fixed

Click here to get PDF download Don’t take my word for it. Here are four opinions that come to the same conclusion; the euronauts are living in cloud cuckoo land. ‘It seems to us that the plan rests on initial forecasts for the economy and public finances which are little short of fantasy. Recent survey evidence suggests that the…