The View From The Bridge

Are we there yet? September 11th 2016

Those of us with children will be used to this refrain as we turn out of the driveway on the way to destinations unknown. Equally we will smile when recalling that “les enfants terribles” were more than likely asleep when we did eventually get there. A perfect analogy for market participants in this most unloved bull market perhaps. In the last edition of the View we asked “When?” and suggested that all was fine as long as the central bank narrative held together. This past week has put that idea very much to the test.

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Hold the front page – April 10th 2016

Latest BBC business news headlines – “Martha Lane Fox joins board of Twitter” –  “Brighton Pier sold for £18m” – Cameron “I could have dealt with the tax question better”. All quite fascinating and totally irrelevant compared with the piece of news that the main stream media (MSM) have chosen to miss completely and that is that the Fed is to hold a closed, unexpected meeting under “expedited procedures”, on Monday, to discuss interest rates. Now that is news! The question is, “Why?” Fortunately, we don’t have long to wait to find out as they will publish their discussions immediately after the meeting finishes. The rumour mill is of course in full swing. Over the past week almost anyone with a Fed lapel pin has been wheeled out to discuss the economy and to a man (and a woman) they fall into the camp that sees the glass half empty. More and more data is coming in below expectations. The first stab at the GDP number for Q1 is not released until the 28th but the Fed will already have a pretty good idea as the latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is just 0.1%. The inference from all this dovish chattering is that they have realized that the rate rise was a big mistake and are about to execute a U-turn – Janet Yellen is…