“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes” – August 3rd 2014

To read the latest View from the Bridge click here to view pdf 

There is no substantive evidence that the above quote was made by Mark Twain, but he did write a far more eloquent observation in a novel, entitled “The Gilded Age: A Tale of To-Day”, he co-wrote in 1874;

History never repeats itself, but the kaleidoscopic combinations of the pictured present often seem to be constructed out of the broken fragments of antique legends.

Piecing through the ever more complex and voluminous data 140 years on is it still possible to get a hint of the future from fragments of the past; antique or otherwise. In the 21st Century investment cycles seem to come around faster than Lewis Hamilton. In the first 14 years we have had significant market peaks in 2000, 2007 and quite possibly 2014. Prior to that you have to go back firstly to 1987 and then 1974 then 1929. Things are speeding up!

But are we near a peak right now? I am indebted to the Elliot Wave Theorist (www.elliottwave.com) for some of the following clues. We have had something of a selloff in mid and small cap stocks already, both here and in the US. The Russell 2000 index of small cap shares saw its closing high back in March as did the FTSE 250 and Small Cap indices suggesting a meaningful switch from risk on to risk off, a pattern that occurred in 2007.

High yield debt (I still prefer the term “junk bonds”) are starting to pull back from historically low yields. The Junk/Treasury price ratio is down more than 11% since its December 31st 2013 peak. The last time this ratio was down more than 11% while the S&P 500 was at an all-time high was in July 2007 and we know what happened in the bond markets after that…

A move out of riskier mid and small caps and perhaps a realisation that high yield is in fact junk is a warning sign that, at the very least, markets have got ahead of themselves. That this is a contrary opinion is something of an understatement as I am continually reminded! Bullish sentiment is rife. “Fund managers are aggressively positioning for a second half upturn in the global economy,” says Market Watch. Citing the recent 51 day span without a single move of more than 1% one pundit suggested that the S&P is not over extended and may never pull back!

The yield on the Dow (2.09%) is now down to levels last seen in 2007 (2.06%). During the ensuing slump yields climbed to close on 5%. In 1929 the market peaked on a yield of 2.83%. Another valuation measure, Tobin’s Q ratio divides the market value of corporate assets by their replacement costs. It is currently standing at the second highest extreme topped only by the TMT frenzy in 2000.

We also have an example of “tulip bulb mania” in the form of a stock with the appropriate name of CYNK Technology. It had no assets, no earnings, no revenue and a business plan based on the idea that “people should, and will, pay to get in touch with people.” It jumped over 36,000% from a low of 6 cents to a high of $21.95 before crashing back to earth; all during the course of July this year. Tulip bulb mania in the 1630s managed gains of a mere 2880% for the “rare” Switzer varieties.

Previous peaks in 1929, 2000 and 2007 have seen a spike in the number of stories about income and wealth inequality, as markets inexorably rise and the rich get richer…And here in April Thomas Picketty launched his book “Capital in the 21st Century” all about…wealth inequality. Another market peak indicator is the increasing concern about bubble conditions. Janet Yellen at Yellen Capital – the new nickname for the Fed given that its burgeoning holdings of US Treasuries make it the world’s biggest hedge fund – doesn’t believe that the price / equity ratio (she probably meant price / earnings but then she is a theoretical economist…) is high, although she did say that certain biotech and social media stocks were overvalued. One is tempted to ask what she was twittering on about…and it seems that I just have…oh dear.

And finally now that he has moved on former Chairman Bernanke has suggested that “It’s entirely possible that if you look at the world, you have slow growing advanced economies and that the rate of return is just going to be low.” Well you certainly engineered a low rate for savers forcing them into just the kind of riskier assets that are now beginning to peak didn’t you?

Mind out below…

Clive Hale –The View from the Bridge – August 3rd 2014


 

A puzzling disconnect – July 3rd 2014

To read the latest View from the Bridge click here to view pdf 

Summer is upon us and in the UK we are actually enjoying some sunshine as are equity markets notably in the US. Fixed interest markets too are still sitting close to all time low yields and “shock horror” Spanish ten year rates are now below both UK gilts and US Treasuries. No I don’t know why either but Dr Aghi is sitting comfortably at the ECB having told the markets yet again that the sanctity of the euro is sacrosanct and woe betide anyone who disagrees with him.

Without a doubt the central banks are now running the show which is unfortunate as their track record, particularly in avoiding stock market excesses, is patchy to say the least. Janet Yellen, the latest incumbent chair at the Fed is quoted as saying that she is not at all concerned about valuations on Wall Street

In other words she is complacent about complacency, but no different from her predecessors who couldn’t see a housing bust coming (Greenspan) and thought that the subprime debt market was under control (Bernanke).

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS – the central banks’ central bank whose mission is to serve central banks in their pursuit of monetary and financial stability) agrees with our view,

“Financial markets have been exuberant over the past year, dancing mainly to the tune of central bank decisions. Volatility in equity, fixed income and foreign exchange markets has sagged to historical lows. Obviously, market participants are pricing in hardly any risks.”

The S&P 500 Index, gained almost 20% in the 12 months to May 2014, whereas expected future earnings grew less than 8% over the same period. The cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 stood at 25 in May 2014, six units higher than its average over the previous 50 years.

It is no different in bond world…”Low corporate bond yields not only reflect expectations of a low likelihood of default and low levels of risk premia, but also contribute to the suppression of actual default rates, in that the availability of cheap credit makes it easier for troubled borrowers to refinance. The sustainability of this process will ultimately be put to the test when interest rates normalize.” In other words how secure are the interest payments on the high yield bond you have just put into your retirement account?

“Once more, communication from the Federal Reserve and the ECB helped support credit and equity markets, with the major stock exchanges reaching record highs in May and June 2014.”

They go on to say that…”It is hard to avoid the sense of a puzzling disconnect between the markets’ buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally….As history reminds us, there is little appetite for taking the long-term view. Few are ready to curb financial booms that make everyone feel illusively richer. Or to hold back on quick fixes for output slowdowns, even if such measures threaten to add fuel to unsustainable financial booms. Or to address balance sheet problems head-on during a bust when seemingly easier policies are on offer. The temptation to go for shortcuts is simply too strong, even if these shortcuts lead nowhere in the end.”  Apart from driving asset prices higher and higher has QE really worked as intended? Answers on a very small postcard…or as the BIS puts it…

“The global economy continues to face serious challenges. Despite a pickup in growth, it has not shaken off its dependence on monetary stimulus. Monetary policy is still struggling to normalize after so many years of extraordinary accommodation.  Despite the euphoria in financial markets, investment remains weak. Instead of adding to productive capacity, large firms prefer to buy back shares or engage in mergers and acquisitions. And despite lackluster long-term growth prospects, debt continues to rise.” As does the ability of the creative accountants to produce “ever” rising earnings growth.

But don’t worry the central banks know what they are doing don’t they? “Market participants seem to have become convinced that monetary conditions will remain very easy for a very long time. But markets may be taking more assurance than central banks wish to give, and they may be considering only a very narrow spectrum of potential outcomes. Such overconfidence is dangerous. It may encourage excessive risk-taking, and may add to the pressure on central banks to postpone policy normalization.”

Their conclusion is based upon much common sense but don’t hold your breath waiting for it to happen.

“There is a common element in all this. In no small measure, the causes of the post-crisis malaise are those of the crisis itself – they lie in a collective failure to get to grips with the financial cycle. Addressing this failure calls for adjustments to policy frameworks – fiscal, monetary and prudential – to ensure a more symmetrical response across booms and busts. And it calls for moving away from debt as the main engine of growth. Otherwise, the risk is that instability will entrench itself in the global economy and room for policy maneuver will run out.”

Might we suggest that the BIS restate their mission which should be to “save” central banks from their pursuit of monetary policy? It would be a much safer world without them.


 

Cash is king – June 5th 2014

It’s been nearly a year since the last View hit the streets during which time your correspondent has gotten himself married which I hasten to add has had nothing to do with the lack of output or indeed its resurrection! Normal service is now resumed and you can expect further diatribes on a monthly basis. First up given that markets everywhere are being manipulated in one way or another and most of them are not cheap where do you put your money. Clue: buy a large mattress.

“Inflation is not measurable, money is poorly understood and the economy is a complex system. From these observations can be derived a straightforward corollary on economic policy makers: trying to control a variable you can’t measure (inflation) with a tool you don’t fully understand (money) in a complex system with hidden, unobservable and non-linear interrelationships (the economy) is a guaranteed way to ensure that most things that happen weren’t supposed to happen.” From the Edelweiss Journal November 2013 www.edelweissjournal.com

 Yet we all live in the thrall of central bankers the kings (and queens) of economic policy forecasting. It has ever been thus, but in the relatively modern era, Paul Volcker’s taming of inflation in the 1980s, by levying penal rates of interest, opened the flood gates for all kinds of economic chicanery experiments culminating in ZIRP, QE and the euro. None of these policy initiatives has demonstrably worked in the way intended, but if we persist for long enough, we will get the result we want, seems to be the mantra. Thus giving credence to Einstein’s observation that doing the same thing repeatedly, but expecting a different outcome, is the definition of madness.

 Today it is the ECBs turn to throw a spanner into the system. Having said that he would do whatever it took way back in July 2012, Dr Aghi has now actually had to pull his proverbial finger out as the Eurozone drifts inexorably towards deflation in a moribund economic environment. His first move was to reduce the rate at which banks lend to the ECB to minus 0.1%. It will now cost the banks money to park their cash in this particular safe haven. The theory being that they will now just have to lend the stuff out in order to make a turn. Problem is Rodney that no one with a decent credit rating wants to borrow from them.

 There will no doubt be lots of loans for car buyers, students and wanna-be home owners, but is this really going to make a lot of difference to the economic recovery. It certainly won’t in the periphery where austerity is still spoken by governments and the IMF and any dissent is being literally beaten out of the system. The EU are debating how “alternative views” can be supressed from the internet and people are being fined for going on anti-Government rallies in Spain; George Orwell was only 30 years early. It would never occur to the ECB that the recent election results giving voice to the anti-Euro brigade might just be the thin end of a very sharp wedge pointing in their direction. The politicians and their banking partners in crime are not going to be put off in their divine right to impose their will by a mere “protest” vote.

 The announcement today reiterated the do whatever it takes line and the initial market response was to sell the euro and gold and buy equities. Just as quickly those moves have been reversed and most things apart from gold are close to opening levels; buy on the rumour (July 2012) sell on the news (today) triumphs over conventional analysis (hot air) yet again…

 So in this crazy world just what are we to do. That other great “quant physicist” Keynes opined that “markets can stay irrational for longer than one can remain solvent” or “employed” if you are an investment manager with a bearish view on low interest rate / QE fuelled markets. If your investment universe is getting more expensive by the day, which asset class best serves the purpose of preserving your hard earned capital? The conventional risk off asset class used to be sovereign debt, but with yields at historic lows they really aren’t cheap or risk free anymore. In corporate bonds and high yield are you really being paid a big enough risk premium? Hedge fund strategies have had a tough time this year as the markets rotate from risk off to risk on and back again without any clear pattern and the historically successful funds are getting to be heroically large and geared to boot.

It may sound like heresy but the answer to the conundrum is cash; under that mattress and stacked on top of your gold bars.


 

Tapering to a fine point…July 23rd 2013

The words of central bankers have for a very long time been poured over by those believing their utterances to have mystic qualities, but we now live in an era where their fallibility is coming into question. The Governor of the San Francisco Fed has written a paper debunking the effectiveness of quantitative easing where monetary policy is “uncertain”, a state of affairs that has been with us since QE was started and reinforced by Bernanke’s two recent press conferences. To taper or not to taper; will he or won’t he? Your guess is as good as mine.

 In Europe Dr. Aghi has been given what in a true democracy would be deemed unconstitutional powers, but we are talking Europe here where the rules are made up after the event and then broken by those with the power to do so; a strategy long employed by France. Until the German elections are out of the way in September there will be more muddle through in southern Med economies as “Geli” doesn’t want her electorate to know that she will have to spend more of their money bailing out a long line of Greek, Portuguese, Spanish, Italian and probably French banks, lest the precious euro falls flat on its face. Some of us believe it already has and only heroic denial, on a scale that makes religious fervour look like belief in Santa Claus, is keeping it alive.

 Shinzo Abe now has a majority in both Houses of Parliament in Japan so he has free reign over economic policy until 2016 which should be plenty enough time to put the final nail in the Japanese economic miracle. Their latest foray into QE dwarfs the Feds efforts and will almost certainly have a similar effect; an asset bubble, stubbornly low growth and a debauched currency; join the club!

 “No pain no gain”, is what my fitness trainer tells me with irritating relish and frequency, but you know what? He’s right! So what should our central banks and politicians be doing? Debt is the problem so deleveraging has to be the answer. This has been going on for some time, but is a very slow process and it will be a long time before growth picks up to levels that will inject some serious pace into the global economy.

 To short circuit the process requires massive debt write offs, which requires equally massive funding and in turn means wealth redistribution from those who have got it to those that don’t. This is why the politicians wont contemplate the pain as it is a policy that won’t get the backing of their sponsors ie the tiny percentage among us who have not only “got it”, but have got nearly all of it. They truly believe that the citizens are “revolting”; believe me, unless action is taken now, one day very soon they will be.