Despite all the stories of apocalypse now there is a fighting chance that Greece will stay in the eurozone for the time being. This is the real tragedy of course, but unfortunately for all involved there just isn’t the political appetite for “Grexit”. The Germans have done their sums and if Greece leaves they are in deep, way above the top of their lederhosen. The Greeks of course want to stay on the euro gravy train, but it is German gravy and Siemens almost certainly built the loco. Merkel is increasingly isolated but being from the old East Germany she is almost certainly dangerous when cornered. The option for her may not be kicking the Greeks into touch, but taking Germany back to the DMark and leaving the French to sort the mess out. This is something her Finance Minister, who looks increasingly like one of Peter Sellers’ characters in Dr Strangelove, would heartily approve of and might even get her re-elected.

The game of bluff and double bluff is pretty much over although no one has told Rumpy Pumpy who is quite happy for Greece to stay as long as they “stand by their commitments”. The chances of a pro-austerity government being elected second time around are improving and if that happens they will surely be given another chance only for it all to go horribly wrong a little way down the road when they hit an enormous pile of tin cans.

It was however nice of Christine Lagarde to lecture our chancellor about letting the Bank of England loose with more printing ink, which they almost certainly have in mind without her misplaced encouragement. The question is will the Fed or the ECB beat us to it? In the US, ex auto sales, which are massaged by “Gubermint” Motors solely to pump up GDP (they sell cars to their dealers, who stick them in the back of the garage lot so as to pretend they have been sold) growth would be below 1%. The story is much the same across “austerity” Europe and let’s not mention the UK.

But I am afraid we will have to. First quarter GDP actually shrunk by 0.3%. Had it not been for an increase in government spending (Austerity? What austerity?) of 1.6% it would have been even worse and Mervyn King now tells us that the Jubilee celebrations will knock a few more points off GDP in Q2. It must be a truly miserable life being a central banker…but then again if the only people you are looking after are other bankers it is bound to be isn’t it? Crank up the presses Merv and put a smile back on your face; any chance you could helicopter a bag of fresh fifties down to 27 Elm Avenue? What’s that you say? RBS need it all? Ok then maybe next time or the time after that…   www.viewfromthebridge.co.uk

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The voters have spoken; well 65% of them in Greece and 80% in France; a lot better than the mayoral junket in London. In none of the locations were the voters given a candidate worthy of the name. In France the “anyone but Sarkozy” vote squeezed in at 51.6% of the valid votes cast; hardly a resounding victory. Nearly 6% of the eligible voters turned up but spoiled their ballot papers – in effect saying “what choice have you given me?” So only 38% of France went for hollandaise sauce.

 How they will be able to afford this (g)astronomic libation to the Gods of “Equalité” was not sufficiently discussed other than the mob appeal of taxing the rich bastards, who no doubt will have already arranged their affairs to pay far less than the 75% imposition. It reminds me of Denis Healey, before he himself became part of the landed gentry, saying he would tax the rich “until the pips squeak”; thus begetting the UK’s supremely efficient tax avoidance industry.

 In Greece it was even more divisive. With 32 parties standing they have three days to cobble together the Big Fat Raving Monster Euro Moussaka coalition which will be in charge of ouzo production. Growth in this part of the economy is essential as there won’t be any anywhere else and as it slowly dawns on the rag bag of ultra left and right that there is no more money, “austerity”, as defined by the Bundeskanzlerin, will seem like a golden opportunity missed; so pass the bottle Spyros oblivion beckons…

 All this talk of promoting growth rather than austerity misses the point entirely. Who is going to give the Greeks, or the French for that matter, the amounts of money they would need to fill the almighty hole in which they find themselves along with most of the rest of Europe, the UK and dare I say it the US? If your answer involves a central bank don’t pass Go and head straight for jail which is where the banksters and their politico/media fan club should all be anyway.

 It is quite extraordinary that the propaganda machine allows people to vote against austerity but yet somehow to think that the answer lies within a single currency regime run by a group of deluded politicians who think they understand the laws of economics, which, by the way, aren’t working for anyone right now and arguably never have. It’s not just a “dismal science” it is not even a science at all!

 In the days to come the pressure on the new governments from the axis powers in Brussels, Frankfurt and Berlin to toe the line will be hard for them to resist. The voters may not have understood entirely what they were voting for nor how they would achieve it, but they will be less than happy to find their democratic voice silenced.

 History doesn’t repeat itself but it does rhyme and Harry Truman understood the issues we face when he said, “Experience has shown how deeply the seeds of war are planted by economic rivalry and social injustice.” Be careful what you vote for… www.viewfromthebridge.co.uk

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